Neither the National Democratic Congress (NDC) nor the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) has been able to secure a third consecutive election victory since the inception of the 4th Republic some 31 years ago. One of the reasons for these electoral outcomes in Ghana’s politics could be associated with Article 66(2) of the 1992 Constitution: “A person shall not be elected to hold office as President of Ghana for more than two terms.” Another reason is that there is often a clamor for change after one of these political parties has been in office for 8 years, which has come to be known as the 8-year political cycle in Ghana.
The NPP, however, believes that it is important to break the eight-year political cycle in order to ensure sustained developmental progress. This necessitated the ‘Break the 8’ slogan in Ghana’s political lexicon even before the official start of campaigning towards the 2024 elections. But central to ‘Breaking the 8’ is the candidate to lead the NPP to victory in the next election.
With less than a month to the now-famous November 4th presidential primaries, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is tipped to emerge as the next flagbearer of the NPP, following his lead in the Super Delegates Conference with 629 votes in August, representing 68.15 percent of the total votes.
Dr. Bawumia gave party supporters and Ghanaians the biggest indication of his presidential bid with the slogan “It is Possible” posted on social media early this year. Many believe that it is not possible for him to win the 2024 election and ‘Break the 8’ because of the perceived 8-year political cycle and the current economic challenges. The recent Nigerian elections were no different; Bola Ahmed Tinubu, President of Nigeria, was not given a ‘dog’s chance’ going into the race. Almost everyone’s favorite was Peter Obi, including other nationals across the continent. The PDP’s Tinubu broke the 8 in Nigeria, and if it is believed that what happens in Nigerian and American political history is anything to go by, then Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia could win the 2024 elections based on strategies unique to the NPP.
The popularity of Dr. Bawumia cannot be questioned, considering that he has been marketed to the Ghanaian electorate for more than a decade. His confidence, charisma, and sense of humor have endeared him not only to members of the NPP but also to large sections of Ghanaians. He is seen to be an all-inclusive leader with a high regard for religious tolerance, and this positions him to become Ghana’s next president.
Although the major issues leading to the elections would center on the economy, jobs, corruption, education, roads, among others, we cannot discount the role of strategy and mobilization during the campaign and electoral period. Dr. Bawumia has proven to be an election strategist since the 2013 Supreme Court hearings, where it became evident that elections are won or lost at the polling station. His energy levels during the campaign and his unflinching support for parliamentary candidates, especially in orphanage constituencies, are unmatched, and this has won the NPP some parliamentary seats in Northern Ghana.
Dr. Bawumia remains a thorn in the flesh of the opposition NDC, and for some years now, they do not miss the slightest opportunity to attack his personality and record in any policy discussion. He is seen as the main competitor to defeat in the next election. However, during his recent campaign tour of the Oti Region, Dr. Bawumia was confident that the NPP could win the 2024 elections because the NDC fears him. “If you look at the strongholds in the North and Zongo communities, it indicates that if Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leads the NPP, they will vote for the NPP. And when this happens, the NDC cannot win the elections.”
This is not mere political talk; the data from the previous elections, particularly in the North East Region, shows that since Dr. Bawumia stepped on the scene, the Region has turned from Green to Blue with a 51.4 percent vote in the 2020 election.
The 2024 elections would not be a walk in the park for the NPP. Dr. Bawumia has a daunting task to get Ghanaians believing in his digitalization philosophy as a catalyst for the country’s economic transformation. For Dr. Bawumia and the NPP to ‘Break the 8,’ the party needs to quickly close its ranks, work hard to restore the economy back on track, and renew the confidence of citizens that Ghana is still the black star of Africa.